Utah high school · Girls volleyball
Every Utah team rated from what actually happened on the court — wins, losses and set scores, adjusted for who they played and where. FPI is a team's expected point margin per set against an average Utah program; the gap between two teams' numbers is what drives every win probability on this page.
Rankings
| Rk | Δ | Team | FPI | Record | Region | Sets | Pts/set | SOS | Proj. | Region title |
|---|
Tap a team for its full schedule, results and upcoming win probabilities. Δ compares today's rank with the rank a week ago using only the matches known then.
Matchup predictor
Choose two teams to see the win probability and most likely set score.
This week
Region races
Remaining region matches are simulated 4,000 times using each match's FPI win probability. "Title" is the share of simulations in which the team finished first in region; ties are split at random.
How it works
Margin rating looks at the average point margin per set of every match, with every opponent's strength on the other side of the equation, so a three-point win over a top team is worth more than a 25-8 rout of a struggling one. Blowouts are capped so a single lopsided set can't move the table. Win rating ignores the score and only asks who won each set. FPI blends the two (65 / 35), then everything is centered so 0.0 is an average Utah team.
The difference between two teams' FPI, plus a fitted home-court edge (about 1 point per set), gives the chance of winning a single set. Best-of-five math turns that into a match win probability and a likely set score. The link between rating gap and set wins is calibrated out of sample: the model is re-fit at a series of past dates and scored on the matches that followed, so early-season odds stay appropriately humble.
Injuries, lineup changes, a libero out for a tournament — none of that is in the data. Matches reported without set scores count toward the win rating only. Out-of-state opponents are rated so cross-border results count, but only Utah schools are ranked. Teams with only a handful of matches carry wider uncertainty than the single number suggests.
Built from publicly available scores and schedules for Utah high school girls volleyball, cross-checked across sources so missing set scores and unreported tournament matches still count. Ratings, probabilities and projections are Volleyball Pipeline's own calculations.
